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Reports For A.iii. Kestrel Special Reports

Kestrel Company Reports

Date Title Action
November 2024 KENYA BANKING SECTOR VALUATION UPDATE: BUY, STABLE NET INTEREST MARGINS & OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCIES View
August 2024 EQUITY RETURNS EXPECTATION: MULTI-YEAR LOW PE RATIOS AMID EARNINGS GROWTH, SETS THE STAGE FOR POSITIVE EQUITY RETURNS ONCE INTEREST RATES EASE View
July 2024 Kenya’s Political & Economic situation: Unforeseen political stalemate - Austerity measures to kick in? Can we bet on it? View
April 2024 2023 BANKS EARNINGS REVIEW: WE RETAIN OUR BUY RECOMMENDATION, DESPITE THE RUN-UP IN PRICES View
March 2024 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Feb 2024): NASI sustains a 4-month winning streak while NASI trailing PE is held at a multi-year low View
November 2023 NSE MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Oct 2023): NASI touches an 11-year low and its trailing PE hits a new record low View
October 2023 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Sept 2023): NASI PE at a record low; Kenyan equities post the worst performance View
September 2023 KENYA BANKING SECTOR VALUATION UPDATE: EXPANDING NET INTEREST MARGINS & OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY, TO OUTWEIGH ELEVATED CREDIT RISK AND FALLING FX INCOME View
May 2023 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (April 2023): NASI returns the worst performance amongst its peers View
November 2022 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Oct 2022): EABL’s rally largely drives NASI’s positive return while financial institutions weigh on the market View
October 2022 MSCI Indices Tracker – Bearish run continues across markets, banking stocks least affected View
October 2022 Why is Kenya’s equity index lagging its SSA peers, despite better Inflation, Policy Rate, FX and Bond Yields readings? View
September 2022 MSCI Indices Tracker – YTD all Indices approaching respective multi-year lows – are investors using elevated discount rates or pricing in earnings declines, or both? View
August 2022 MSCI Indices Tracker – SSA lags other markets; Safaricom top performer in both SSA Index & Frontier Index View
July 2022 MSCI Indices Tracker (June 2022) – Price declines across SSA slowdown; Kenya and Safaricom weighting up in SSA Index, but down in Frontier Index View
June 2022 Safaricom MSCI Index weighting review - when the tide turns in favor of fundamentals, Safaricom stands to benefit the most View
June 2022 *REMINDER* A Conversation with the IMF DRC Resident Representative View
May 2022 NSE MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (April 2022): The NASI and the NSE 20 hit 18-months lows; For the first time in 16-months, the NASI trailing PE is trading at a 15.3% discount to its historical average View
April 2022 Acorn REIT Quick Facts Report - FY21 Performance View
March 2022 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Feb 2022): NASI dips to a 12-month low and the NSE 20 marks a 10-month low, driven by declines in Safaricom and EABL View
January 2022 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Jan 2022): NASI marks a 10-month low on account of weak share price performance by Safaricom and Equity bank View
Jan-2021 Kenya Monthly Commentary: The NASI rose for the sixth straight month in January, helped by Safaricom View
Jan-2021 Kenya Monthly Commentary: The NASI rose for the sixth straight month in January, helped by Safaricom View
Jan-2021 Kenya Monthly Commentary: The NASI rose for the sixth straight month in January, helped by Safaricom View
Jan-2021 Kenya Monthly Commentary: The NASI rose for the sixth straight month in January, helped by Safaricom View
August 2020 KENYAN BANKING SECTOR OUTLOOK: SELL (27.4% downside): Higher cost of risk and lower NIMs weigh down on valuations View
May 2020 NSE FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT WATCH (April 2020) – Magnitude of foreign investor selling slows down from an 8-year high View
January 2020 NSE FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT WATCH (Jan 2020) View
August 2019 NSE FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT WATCH - July 2019 View

Kestrel Special Reports

Date Title Action
June 2021 KENYA: 2021-22 BUDGET ANALYSIS – KEY TAKEAWAYS View
Mar-2020 NSE impact COVID 19 – A recurrence of 2008, foreign net outflows suppressing equity prices View
October 2019 NSE FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT WATCH (Oct 2019) – Equity bank records the highest net foreign selling in the last 3 years, attributable to profit-taking View
Sep 2019 Kenya Debt Sustainability View
June 2019 NSE Futures Contracts Summary View
Jun-2019 East African Budgets 2019/2020 - Sector Specific Impact Analysis View
May 2018 Financial Markets Authority Bil 2018 View
Oct 2015 OUTLOOK ON THE SHORT RAINS SEASON View
Jul 2015 TOURISM: AN INDUSTRY UNDER THREAT? View
May 2015 Briefing Note: Soft Commodities– Tea and Coffee Tea View
Apr 2015 Brief Outlook for the ‘Long-Rains’ Season View
Feb 2015 Update on Capital Gains Tax View
Jan 2015 Kenya Public Offers Revival? View
Jan 2015 Update on Kenya Capital Gains Tax Jan 2015 View
Dec 2014 Update on Capital Gains Tax View
May 2014 Market Breadth and Depth View
Mar 2013 NSE Foreign Ownership Structure View
Feb 2013 Kenya General Election 2013 Outlook View
Jan 2008 Post Election Analysis View

Conference Calls

Date Title Action
June 2022 A Conversation with the IMF DRC Resident Representative View
Nov-2020 Kenya Outlook: A discussion with the IMF Kenya team View
Apr-2020 [TRANSCRIPT] Kenya under COVID-19 - A discussion with the World Bank View
Apr-2020 [TRANSCRIPT] Kenya under COVID-19 - A discussion with the IMF View
Apr-2020 [RESCHEDULED] - Kenya under COVID-19 - A discussion with the World Bank [TUESDAY 14th APRIL] View
Apr-2020 Kenya under COVID-19 - A discussion with the World Bank (Thu 09-Apr) View
Apr-2020 ***RESCHEDULED*** Kenya under COVID-19 - A discussion with the IMF on the challenges and opportunities ahead View
Mar 2020 *REMINDER* Kenya under COVID-19 - A discussion with the IMF on the challenges and opportunities ahead View
Mar-2020 ***POSTPONEMENT*** Kenya under COVID-19 - A discussion with the IMF on the challenges and opportunities ahead View
Mar-2020 Kenya under COVID-19 - A discussion with the IMF on the challenges and opportunities ahead View

Circulars/Press Releases

Date Title Action
Feb 2018 CBK gives Kenyan banks 5-year waiver from higher capital requirements View
Feb 2018 KRA maintains stance on bank provisions rules View
Nov 2017 NSE listed companies face more disclosures View
Oct 2017 CBK shortlists 3 to takeover Imperial Bank View
Oct 2017 Moody's places 3 Kenyan banks on review for downgrade View
Sep 2017 East African View
Sep 2017 The Standard pg. 39 View
Sep 2017 Standard (18092017) View
Sep 2017 Business Daily (14092017) View

Kenya Budget Reports

Date Title Action
Jun-2020 The Kenya 2020/2021 Budget - A Sector Specific Impact Analysis View
Jun-2018 Kenya Budget FY18/FY19 Sector Analysis View

NSE Monthly Market Watch

Date Title Action
July 2023 NSE MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (June 2023): Foreign portfolio holdings as a % of CBK forex reserves at a new low of 20.1% in 2Q23 View
March 2023 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Feb 2023): NASI PE ratio at a 12-year low; our estimate of equities allocation by pension funds at a record low View
December 2022 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Nov 2022): NASI and NSE 20 at the lowest levels in the last 6 months; NASI PE dips to an 11-year low View
October 2022 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Sept 2022): NASI trailing PE dips to an 11-year low View
September 2022 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (August 2022): NCBA bank rallies to a 30-month high; Safaricom’s losses largely weighs on NASI return View
August 2022 NSE MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (July 2022): NASI recovers from a 5-year low on account of large-cap gains View
June 2022 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (May 2022): NASI ends at the lowest levels since Feb 2017 & NASI’s PE discount to its historical average reaches an 11-year high View
November 2021 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Nov 2021): NASI dips to an 8-month low after marking the largest monthly drop in the last 20 months, driven by Safaricom’s losses View
November 2021 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (OCT 2021): NSE 20 halts a 6-month gaining streak; banking stocks weigh on NASI return View
October 2021 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY: NASI halts a 5-month winning streak driven by declines in large-cap stocks View
September 2021 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY: Safaricom records the highest net foreign inflows since Aug 2016; Equity banks sustains a 7-month winning streak View
August 2021 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY: NASI rallies to a 40-month high and the NSE 20 marks an 18-month high, share price gains across the market View
July 2021 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (June 2021) : NASI hits a 37-month high and NSE 20 touches a 13-month high, share price gains across the board View
June 2021 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (May 2021): NASI touches a 35-month high, largely on the back of large-cap gains View
April 2021 MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY: NASI hits a 34-month high & market PE touches a new 15-year high, driven by Safaricom’s continued rally View
April 2021 NSE Monthly Commentary March 2021 - NSE P/E hits a 15-year high on the back of weak FY20 earnings, led by a dip in banking sector earnings View
Feb 2021 Kenya Monthly Commentary: Safaricom shares powered the NASI to the biggest m/m jump since Oct-2019 View
December 2020 NSE Monthly Market Commentary - NASI hits an 11-month high as Safaricom trades at an all-time high buoyed by foreign demand View
Nov-2020 NSE Monthly Commentary Nov 2020 - SAFARICOM DROVE NASI PERFORMANCE, WHILST THE INDEX UNDERPERFORMED HER PEERS. View
Oct-2020 NSE Monthly Commentary (Oct 2020) - Equity market turnover fell to a 4 year low View
Aug-2020 NSE Monthly Commentary - Market P/E ratio trends slightly above its 10-year average View
Aug-2020 NSE Monthly Commentary - NSE rallies in August following 1H20 results View
August 2020 NSE Monthly Commentary July 2020 - YTD, Kenyan equities market lags comparable peer SSA markets View
July 2020 NSE Monthly Commentary June 2020 View
June 2020 NSE Monthly Market Commentary (May 2020) - Local institutional investors record the second highest net equity purchases in the last 27 months View
April 2020 NSE Monthly Market Watch (April 2020) – Local institutional investors mark the second highest net inflows in the last 19 months View
April 2020 NSE Monthly Market Watch (March 2020) - Local institutional investors net buys hit an 8-year high as large-cap stocks trade at multi-year lows View
March 2020 NSE Monthly Market Watch (JFeb 2020) - Local institutional investors’ buying at the highest levels since Nov 2019 View
February 2020 NSE MONTHLY MARKET WATCH (Jan 2020) View
Jan 2020 NSE MONTHLY MARKET WATCH (Dec-19) - Gains on the NASI supported by Safaricom and banking stocks View
Dec 2019 NSE MONTHLY MARKET WATCH (Nov 2019) – Local investor participation hits 17-month high View
November 2019 NSE MONTHLY MARKET WATCH (Oct 2019) – Banking stocks and Safaricom rally reverses NASI and NSE 20 declining trend View
October 2019 NSE MONTHLY MARKET WATCH (Sept 2019) – NASI declines the most in the last 4 months as Safaricom trades ex-dividend View
September 2019 NSE MONTHLY MARKET WATCH - AUGUST 2019 View
August 2019 NSE MONTHLY MARKET WATCH (July 2019) - LOCAL INSTITUTIONS NET BUYING TOUCHES A 9-MONTH HIGH View
July 2019 NSE Monthly Market Watch June 2019 View
June 2019 NSE Monthly Market Watch - May 2019 - "Foreign investors turn strongest buyers in 33 months. Local institutional investor selling intensified" View
May 2019 NSE Monthly Market Watch - April 2019 - Investor interest in equities declined during the month, following the rally seen in 1Q19 View
April 2019 NSE Monthly Market Watch - March 2019 - Foreign investor inflows highest since Aug-2016 while local investors intensify bearishness View
February 2019 NSE Monthly Market Watch - January 2019 - NASI outperforms as foreign investors share of purchases hits 2 year high… View
January 2018 NSE 2018 Market Watch & 2019 Outlook View
December 2018 NSE Monthly Market Watch - November 2018 - 2018 on-course to register highest foreign investor net outflow in NSEs history… View
November 2018 NSE Monthly Market Watch - October 2018 - YTD, NASI now trailing peer frontier markets…first time since 2016 View
October 2018 NSE Monthly Market Watch - September 2018 - Surprise excise tax increase for telecoms worse than retention of interest rates controls… View
September 2018 NSE Monthly Market Watch - August 2018 - Equity prices slide further…eight consecutive months of foreign outflow View
Aug 2018 NSE Monthly Market Watch - July 2018 - Local institutions on risk-off mode… View
Jul 2018 Market Watch - June 2018 - NSE posts positive returns in June…defying Frontier markets trend View
May 2018 NSE Monthly Market Watch - May 2018 View
May 2018 NSE Monthly Market Watch - April 2018 - A pause from the rally... View

NSE Foreign Portfolio Investment Watch

Date Title Action
April 2020 NSE Foreign Portfolio Investment Watch (March 2020) - Net foreign outflows on NSE touch an 8-year high View
March 2020 NSE Foreign Portfolio Investment Watch (Feb 2020) - NSE marks the largest net foreign outflows since Oct 2018 View
Dec-2019 NSE Foreign Investor Watch - Foreign investors close 2019 as net buyers View
December 2019 NSE FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT WATCH - November 2019 View
October 2019 NSE FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT WATCH - September 2019 View
August 2019 NSE FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT WATCH - August 2019 View
July 2019 NSE FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT WATCH - June 2019 View
December 2018 NSE Foreign Portfolio Investment Watch - 3Q18 View
Aug 2018 NSE Foreign Portfolio Investment Watch - 2Q18 View